Is 2026 the Best Entry Point for Commercial Real Estate Buyers?
Buyers looking at commercial real estate have a real chance right now. Tough times from the past few years have left many deals on the table at low prices.
Many people in commercial real estate say yes, 2026 could be the time to jump in. High interest rates hurt owners for years, and empty offices from remote work added to the pain. Office vacancy rates are around 23 percent, indicating landlords are struggling. Banks lent 35 percent more this year than last, and sales rose by more than 40 percent by late 2025. This means things are starting to move. In areas like apartments and warehouses, prices hit bottom, and rents may rise soon.
Owners with big debts due soon sell at a discount, often 20 to 30 percent off. With the economy holding up despite new rules like tariffs, smart buyers can get better returns than bonds or stocks. Experts at Colliers say prices are finding a new balance, but good deals last for those who look for fixes. From what I’ve seen in past cycles, the best deals come when others panic.
Distress Signals Across Key Sectors
Offices face the worst trouble. Old buildings without nice features lose renters fast. Newer ones with gyms or cafes do well, but dated spots stay empty. Many turn offices into homes or shared workspaces. This works best in city centers near trains, where people need places to live.
Warehouses tell a different story. Online shopping and factories moving closer keep demand high, with 220 million square feet absorbed last year. New building slowed by 63 percent, so space is tight as robots and smart systems need more room. Apartments remain strong thanks to government support for affordable housing. Shops are now mixing in, with 26 million square feet taken up in places tied to homes or hotels.
Some parts hurt, but others pull in big money from funds.
Why Now Feels Like a Sweet Spot
Deals are heating up, with 15 to 20 percent more big sales expected. Buyers pick safe spots amid bumps in the economy. Rates stayed high into 2025, leading to bad refinances or sales. Now rates drop, and data centers grow with AI.
Banks lend more to solid properties. PwC says money flowed late last year, but half the players wait for calm. That wait helps buyers grab sales from forced sellers. Cap rates fall where rents grow, and spaces fill.
I think 2026 suits people who like to get their hands dirty. Funds take time; small buyers spot local gems like a mall for new shops or an office for homes. Do your homework on rules and renters.
Risks That Could Spoil the Party
Watch for new rules from President Trump, like tighter immigration or trade barriers, which hit workers and cost jobs. Growth may slow if prices rise again. Not all offices turn over easily, with red tape in the way.
Tech speeds up change. AI shows weak spots quickly. Debt piles up to 2027; sticky rates mean more pain. Test deals for work-from-home and online sales limits.
But strong spots like apartments, warehouses, and some shops hold firm. Rents rise in good areas. Leasing looks clearer soon.
Strategies for Savvy Buyers
Look close to home. Find growing spots with yields over 7 percent, such as southern warehouses or middle apartments. Team with fix-up pros; add perks to fill spaces fast. Use smart tech for better income.
Check everything. Plan for rent drops or rate jumps. Get short-term loans first. Mix types, like fix-up offices with sure warehouses.
After years of watching, 2026 rewards those who dig in. Big shifts make winners; skip it, and pay more later. Prices reset for good yields, act before it steadies. For more on these trends, check out this spot-on video:
It dives into office changes, warehouse booms, and smart fixes, just like the deals here.
Looking Ahead with Eyes Wide Open
Commercial real estate offers a mix of risk and reward in 2026. Tough spots offer deals, but better days come. Careful buyers win big.
Image Credit – nacommercialrealestate.com
